RADC-TR-73-139, FINAL TECHNICAL REPORT: BAYESIAN RELIABILITY DEMONSTRATION - PHASE III - DEVELOPMENT OF TEST PLANS (JUN-1973)

RADC-TR-73-139, FINAL TECHNICAL REPORT: BAYESIAN RELIABILITY DEMONSTRATION - PHASE III - DEVELOPMENT OF TEST PLANS (JUN-1973)., This Final Report Is the result of a study performed for RADC under Contract F30602-72-C-0067. This study is the third phase of a three phase effort to develop Bayesian Reliability Demonstration Tests (BRDT). The objectives of this phase were i) develop and tabulate BRDT of fixed time and sequential types. ii) develop and tabulate tests (called Bayes/Classical in this report) when the producer and consumer cannot agree on a prior distribution. iii) develop methods of updating existing prior distributions. iv) develop a preliminary military standard for BRDT. v) investigate some special problems. vi) fit additional prior distributions. Bayesian fixed times tests, Bayeslan/Classlcal fixed time tests, and sequential Bayesian tests were developed and tabulated. These tests form an essential part of the preliminary military standard which was also developed. Additional fits of the inverted gamma distribution reconfirmed its choice as a prior distribution and further study showed that updates in the prior distribution are easily made. A test based on probability of acceptance is satisfactory to test for shifts in the prior distribution. Tables were developed giving the truncation points for the sequential tests. At this time, no satisfactory solution has been found for placing more than one equipment on test at a time.